US and global wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 were both revised higher in the USDA’s November supply-demand update on Friday.
The November update – the first to be issued since September due to the now-ended US government shutdown – pegged 2025-26 US wheat ending stocks at 901 million bu, up from 844 million in September and 851 million a year earlier.
Global wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 were reported at 271.43 million tonnes, versus 264.06 million in September and 261.44 million. If accurate, it would mark the first year-to-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019-20, the USDA said.
Heading into today’s report, traders and analysts were looking for more modest increases in US and global wheat ending stocks. The average trade guess for US stocks was 867 million bu, and just over 266 million for global stocks. Wheat futures were 5-10 cents bu lower.
All this month’s increase in US wheat ending stocks can be attributed to the higher production number (1.985 billion bu) contained in the Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary. The USDA made no changes compared to September on the US wheat demand side.
World wheat production for 2025-26 climbed 12.7 million tonnes this month to 828.89 million, with sizeable increases in major exporting countries, including Argentina (+2.5 million tonnes), Australia (+1.5 million), Canada (+1 million), Russia (+1.5 million), Kazakhstan, the EU, and the US.
Global wheat consumption for 2025-26 was raised 4.3 million tonnes to 818.9 million, driven mainly by higher feed and residual use in Russia, Kazakhstan, and the EU. Even with stronger demand, production growth outpaced consumption, lifting global inventories.
Trade projections were also increased: world wheat trade is now expected to reach 217.2 million tonnes, up 2.5 million, on higher export outlooks for Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan. These gains were only partially offset by a reduction in Russia’s expected exports, down 1 million from September to an estimated 44 million.
Argentina and Australia exports were both revised 1 million tonnes higher from September to 14 million and 26 million tonnes, respectively.
At $5, the average expected US wheat price for 2025-26 is down a dime from September.
